Monday, June 30, 2014
A Brief Guide to Free Agency for Miami Heat fans
With NBA free agency starting, and players being able to sign as of next
week, I think it has to be mentioned that we shouldnt expect guys to
take less money. They took less last time, and they should get what
they're worth. The salary cap in basketball is ridiculous, and limits
their salaries. The way they set things up after what happened 4 years
ago, they made it harder to keep 3 players together. All year, I
looked around the landscape of the NBA and I wont lie, there are places
that LeBron and/or Bosh could go that would probably make more sense for
them, including monetarily, and could probably produce a lot of really interesting teams. I wont blame them for leaving if that
happens. I am putting my trust in Pat Riley on this, but again, I wont
blame him if these guys leave or dont want to take pay cuts. The fact is,
we need these guys to take pay cuts at this point....LeBron supposedly
(and I wont believe that until I hear/see it from him) says he wants
close to a max deal or the max, which is more than understandable b/c of
the reasons I mentioned, but also b/c he has never been the highest
paid player on his own team, which is obviously ridiculous. Shane
Battier retired, and we already needed more athleticism on the wing, and
now we need to replace him as well. There are also multiple free agents
we can target depending on what situation we are in. Probably the
scenario we could really do something with would be if LeBron signed a 3
year/$62 million deal (Year 1 $20mil/Year 2 $21mil/Year 3 $21mil) with 2
player options worth $22 million on the back of that, Chris Bosh signed
a 4 Year/$64 million deal (Year 1 $15mil/Year 2 $15mil/Year 3
$17mil/Year 4 $17mil) with 2 player options on the back of that worth
$18 million on the back of that, Dwyane Wade signed a 3 year/$44-47
million deal (Year 1 $12-15mil/Year 2 $15mil/Year 3 $17mil) with 2
player options at the back of that worth $16&17 million respectively
on the back of that. That would put us around $50 million committed,
and would leave us somewhere between $10-15 million in cap space
depending on what the cap is increasing to this year. We also should
have the mid level exception and other exceptions that we could use if
we need to. There are many free agents to target that could help us. I personally would stay away from giving anyone anything more than 3 years. I
see us going after Shawn Marion for sure, and hopefully for the veterans
minimum. Then there are Trevor Ariza and Spencer Hawes out there, and
those 2 would be PERFECT for us, but Lance Stephenson is a free agent,
Luol Deng is a free agent, Chandler Parsons is a restricted free agent,
but Houston wants to go after a max contract player, so it would be
possible that they wouldnt match a certain offer. Those 3 are probably
out of our price range b/c of the demand for them. There are plenty of
other interesting names out there. It would be great to address the wing
with a good defender who can knock down shots and has the athleticism
and length I mentioned previously. I named a few for that spot. Hawes
would help us stretch the floor and he is a really good passer. I'm
personally interested in Thabo Sefolosha. We need to decide on what
we're doing at the PG position. Its hard to say we need to make a change
there to be honest. I like having both Chalmers and Cole on this team,
and they do important things; Napier is a stud, but I dont know for sure
what he can do at this level, and you dont want to lose what those
other guys have done for this team. Continued depth would be nice, and
probably at this point, if they added any of the big names I mentioned
especially, they would be targeting minimum type players. We need added
depth and probably more athleticism (Birdman type of player) at a big
man spot. As I said, I trust Pat Riley. I'm also interested in what a
lot of these other teams do b/c there is a lot of talent out there this
year, but I just wanted to make sure everyone is prepared for whats
happening. Dont have too high expectations, and please dont embarrass
South Florida sports fans by being SALTY if things dont go the way we
would hope
Thursday, June 5, 2014
2014 NBA FINALS Preview, Analysis, and Prediction
2014 NBA Finals
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs
It all comes down to this...The Miami Heat look for a 3-peat, as they face the San Antonio Spurs in a rematch of the 2013 NBA Finals...Throughout the season, I have continued to say that the San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. I will not waiver from that statement here. However, I am picking the Miami Heat to win this series in 6 games. That may sound like an odd contradiction, but this is my reasoning...The San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. Last season, they lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, in 7 games. The series came down to a missed free throw by Kawhi Leonard, an offensive rebound by Chris Bosh, an incredible shot by Ray Allen, and then a missed bunny hook shot at the rim by Tim Duncan as Shane Battier pulled the chair on him, followed by a dagger jumpshot by LeBron James. It could be argued that the series could have gone either way. This season, the San Antonio Spurs are a better team. They still have Tony Parker setting things up, getting in the paint. They still have Tim Duncan down low. They still have Danny Green shooting 3s. Kawhi Leonard is another year more experienced, and continues to look like a star every single game on both ends of the court. His length, athleticism, and freakish hands cause the Heat trouble. The Spurs now have Patty Mills over Gary Neal. They also added Marco Belinelli, who has always hurt the Heat with his deadly outside shooting. Thiago Splitter has actually shown improvement in his game, though I'm not sure if he'll be a factor in this series. Boris Diaw is in incredible shape, and he has had a fantastic year, showing off his old PG skills at times and shooting a better percentage from 3. They also still have a guy named Manu Ginobli, who despite all of the short-sighted people that said he was done, is still just as good as he has been. They have other players on the roster, such as Matt Bonner or Jeff Ayers or Aaron Baynes, that could possibly see time as well. This team plays the game of basketball like a well oiled machine. It really is beautiful to watch. They get in the paint to set things up for themselves or others. They move the ball with precision, not letting their egos get in the way of taking the best shot available. They have a bunch of knock down shooters. They dont hurt themselves with turnovers. They play good defense and then get themselves out in the open floor. When you play the San Antonio Spurs, you know that they are going to give everything they have, and you are usually going to have to play perfect basketball to beat them...For the Heat to beat them, they are going to need to stay in front of guys, and not allow them to get into the paint. They need to close out hard to shooters, force them off their spots if possible, and not let the 3 point shot beat them, as it almost did in 2013. They are going to need to be active with their hands on the defensive end, be disruptive, and hopefully cause some turnovers, so they can get out in the open court. They need to play good transition defense as well, as you need to find shooters when getting back against the Spurs. Norris Cole, Shane Battier, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis are needed for specific things in this series. Battier is needed on the defensive end, with his savvy and ability to disrupt. He is needed to knock down shots when he is in the game as well. Ray Allen is obviously needed to knock down shots as well. Norris Cole is important, as the Heat try to make things more difficult for Tony Parker or others to get in the paint. The Heat bigs will need to come up and help on pick and rolls to not allow Spurs guards space to attack and get to the other side of the floor. Keeping Parker on one side of the floor is especially important. Rashard Lewis will likely see time in this series, and he has another pretty good matchup if both teams go small. Hopefully, he can bring the same defensive aggressiveness he showed against David West, while stretching the floor for the Heat. If you havent noticed it, I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the 3 point shot in this series. It is important for both teams. The Heat must not allow 2nd chances by the Spurs in this series. Offensive Rebounds by the Spurs in this series could lead to more 3 pointers. Another dynamic that is very interesting in this series is how the Spurs plan to guard LeBron James this time. Last year, and in years past, the Spurs played off LeBron, daring him to shoot. LeBron didnt take those shots early in the 2013 series, and then put the Spurs away taking, and knocking down, those shots in Game 7. LeBron has improved greatly from the perimeter in these last couple of years, and I expect him to take those shots this time if they are there. Leonard's length has given him some trouble in the past, but LeBron and Dwyane Wade's abilities to go in the post should help when in the half court...In truth, these teams are very similar, and very evenly matched. I call the San Antonio Spurs the best team in the NBA. At the end of the day though, the Miami Heat have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and the Spurs dont. Nobody has beaten the Heat since te 2011 Finals. They may lose, but I have to stick with the defending back-to-back NBA Champions
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs
It all comes down to this...The Miami Heat look for a 3-peat, as they face the San Antonio Spurs in a rematch of the 2013 NBA Finals...Throughout the season, I have continued to say that the San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. I will not waiver from that statement here. However, I am picking the Miami Heat to win this series in 6 games. That may sound like an odd contradiction, but this is my reasoning...The San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. Last season, they lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, in 7 games. The series came down to a missed free throw by Kawhi Leonard, an offensive rebound by Chris Bosh, an incredible shot by Ray Allen, and then a missed bunny hook shot at the rim by Tim Duncan as Shane Battier pulled the chair on him, followed by a dagger jumpshot by LeBron James. It could be argued that the series could have gone either way. This season, the San Antonio Spurs are a better team. They still have Tony Parker setting things up, getting in the paint. They still have Tim Duncan down low. They still have Danny Green shooting 3s. Kawhi Leonard is another year more experienced, and continues to look like a star every single game on both ends of the court. His length, athleticism, and freakish hands cause the Heat trouble. The Spurs now have Patty Mills over Gary Neal. They also added Marco Belinelli, who has always hurt the Heat with his deadly outside shooting. Thiago Splitter has actually shown improvement in his game, though I'm not sure if he'll be a factor in this series. Boris Diaw is in incredible shape, and he has had a fantastic year, showing off his old PG skills at times and shooting a better percentage from 3. They also still have a guy named Manu Ginobli, who despite all of the short-sighted people that said he was done, is still just as good as he has been. They have other players on the roster, such as Matt Bonner or Jeff Ayers or Aaron Baynes, that could possibly see time as well. This team plays the game of basketball like a well oiled machine. It really is beautiful to watch. They get in the paint to set things up for themselves or others. They move the ball with precision, not letting their egos get in the way of taking the best shot available. They have a bunch of knock down shooters. They dont hurt themselves with turnovers. They play good defense and then get themselves out in the open floor. When you play the San Antonio Spurs, you know that they are going to give everything they have, and you are usually going to have to play perfect basketball to beat them...For the Heat to beat them, they are going to need to stay in front of guys, and not allow them to get into the paint. They need to close out hard to shooters, force them off their spots if possible, and not let the 3 point shot beat them, as it almost did in 2013. They are going to need to be active with their hands on the defensive end, be disruptive, and hopefully cause some turnovers, so they can get out in the open court. They need to play good transition defense as well, as you need to find shooters when getting back against the Spurs. Norris Cole, Shane Battier, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis are needed for specific things in this series. Battier is needed on the defensive end, with his savvy and ability to disrupt. He is needed to knock down shots when he is in the game as well. Ray Allen is obviously needed to knock down shots as well. Norris Cole is important, as the Heat try to make things more difficult for Tony Parker or others to get in the paint. The Heat bigs will need to come up and help on pick and rolls to not allow Spurs guards space to attack and get to the other side of the floor. Keeping Parker on one side of the floor is especially important. Rashard Lewis will likely see time in this series, and he has another pretty good matchup if both teams go small. Hopefully, he can bring the same defensive aggressiveness he showed against David West, while stretching the floor for the Heat. If you havent noticed it, I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the 3 point shot in this series. It is important for both teams. The Heat must not allow 2nd chances by the Spurs in this series. Offensive Rebounds by the Spurs in this series could lead to more 3 pointers. Another dynamic that is very interesting in this series is how the Spurs plan to guard LeBron James this time. Last year, and in years past, the Spurs played off LeBron, daring him to shoot. LeBron didnt take those shots early in the 2013 series, and then put the Spurs away taking, and knocking down, those shots in Game 7. LeBron has improved greatly from the perimeter in these last couple of years, and I expect him to take those shots this time if they are there. Leonard's length has given him some trouble in the past, but LeBron and Dwyane Wade's abilities to go in the post should help when in the half court...In truth, these teams are very similar, and very evenly matched. I call the San Antonio Spurs the best team in the NBA. At the end of the day though, the Miami Heat have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and the Spurs dont. Nobody has beaten the Heat since te 2011 Finals. They may lose, but I have to stick with the defending back-to-back NBA Champions
Miami Heat win 4-2
2014 NBA Champions
MIAMI HEAT
Ignoring the Conference Finals
I decided to ignore the Conference Finals b/c there was a lot of redundancy in the things I have said all year. The Spurs-OKC series, however, was not what I expected. I didnt realize that Scott Brooks was going to randomly decide not to play his best lineups. I didnt realize he was going to go away from the athleticism that gave them their advantage. Obviously, Serge Ibaka was hurt and missed the first 2 games, but that wasnt solely to blame for the Thunder loss. I feel bad for Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook. Hopefully, they come back strong next year, and I have no doubt they can (though I am very interested in seeing what happens with Thabo Sefolosha)
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