As this shortened NBA season has moved forward, many things have changed. There have been many impactful injuries to the top teams in each conference, and with those injuries we have seen the emergence of many talented, young players. We have also seen these injuries take the usual negative effect that they would, for example, the Memphis Grizzlies. They lost Zach Randolph early on to an MCL tear and haven’t performed to their full potential. You see the possibilities with that young team when they are healthy. They now have playoff experience after their amazing run last year, and they added depth to their front court off the bench; and let’s not forget the most important thing. They have Rudy Gay back, healthy, and playing like an All-Star. The Grizzlies have played well in Randolph’s absence, but you can still see the hole left by him. I think that when he comes back, the Grizzlies should be able to make a move in the playoffs this year. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if they were to lose in the first round. The West is really deep this year and anything can happen.
The LA Clippers are another great example of a team being limited by injuries. They have a lot of depth at the guard positions that can play both the point and the 2-guard. Their main issue is their lack of depth in the front court. After Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan, they don’t really have anything. They did pick up Kenyon Martin, which should help, but I still don’t see it being enough. I felt that they still had a chance to go deep into the playoffs, but then, in my opinion, their season was lost when Chauncey Billups fell to the floor with that Achilles injury. Chauncey looked to be in great shape, and he brought great leadership to the Clippers. Even playing a new position this year, he seemed to adjust really well. Obviously, he also has a lot of playoff and big game experience. I think that the Clippers have to make some sort of move to get back into contention. Maybe they go after JR Smith. If they do that, I will put them back into the same consideration I had them in before. Otherwise, don’t expect the Clippers to get past the second round of the playoffs, if they get that far.
The Denver Nuggets have also suffered the wrath of injury. They are the highest scoring team in the NBA, but unfortunately Danillo Gallinari is out with a seriously sprained ankle. The Nuggets have incredible depth and that is what makes them a force in my opinion. If they can hold things down until Gallinari comes back, I feel like they will make a lot of noise in this year’s playoffs. They will get Wilson Chandler back from China, which should add even more talent to an already deep team. Bottom line, this injury should hurt them for awhile, but they will recover and go deep into the playoffs.
Golden State continues to have an unfortunate streak of luck with injuries to their back court and big men. Stephen Curry can’t seem to stay on the court. Monta Ellis has been carrying them lately, but they won’t do anything playing like that. They have a lot of young talent and should be better over the next couple of years. Mark Jackson has been doing a very good job trying to install a new culture there.
Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Bucks, Andrew Bogut is hurt and out for the season yet again. There have been reports of Brandon Jennings already planning his exit there, so we’ll see how the future goes for this team.
Now we get to the injuries that have actually affected teams in a non-negative way. The San Antonio Spurs are once again quietly having a great season. When Manu Ginobli went down early with a wrist injury, we wrote off the Spurs, especially since they traded George Hill to the Indiana Pacers. That was a mistake. Greg Popovich has done an incredible job, as always, coaching this team with young players such as Kawai Leonard, Danny Green, and Gary Neal doing a great job filling in and playing a lot of important and productive minutes. Tiago Splitter looks much better than he did last year and he has done a good job coming off the bench. Tim Duncan’s production has dramatically fallen, but we have seen that he still has some left. The main reason, however, for the success of the San Antonio Spurs? His name is Tony Parker. The 29 year old point guard is having an All-Star year, leading his team after there was a little doubt towards him before the season after the George Hill trade. He has been a real spark, getting to the basket, making great passes, and even carrying the scoring load at times. Now that Manu is back, we see that the Spurs have good depth and those young players have some game experience. I look for them to be a possible sleeper team in the playoffs, but at the same time, I currently have them losing in the first round again.
The Atlanta Hawks unfortunately lost Al Horford to a torn pectoral muscle, but they have still played well without him. He says that he is hopeful to return by the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see if the Hawks can keep it up until he gets back. My feeling is that they will. They are a deep team and they are really motivated to get past the second round. We shall see what happens with the Hawks.
The Boston Celtics are a very interesting team this season. They have had a couple of injuries and they lost Jeff Greene before the season started. They made a couple of nice pickups and I really like their rookie Forward JuJuan Johnson. I feel that picking up Mickael Pietrus for such a low cost was a steal and potentially can end up being a huge move for them. Pietrus can shoot the three and he is a good defender, showing in the past that he can guard Lebron James in the playoffs. The Big 3 obviously aren’t the same guys they were in the past, but Paul Pierce has played very well since returning from injury and Rajon Rondo is slowly proving to be the real leader of this team. They have a lot of experience and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do something in the playoffs against an Indiana, Philadelphia, or even, the Chicago Bulls. They will have to hold up through this rough season, but if they do, they can make it very interesting.
Finally we come to the New York Knicks. I have to admit that the start to their season caught me off guard. I had New York as a possible top 5 seed in the East. Instead, they have dealt with injuries to Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. When they have been on the court, they haven’t shown that they can mesh together. I still believe that the Knicks can work. I don’t think they can contend for a championship because they don’t play defense, but they should be able to be in the upper class of the Eastern Conference. Mike D’Antoni’s offensive system requires a competent point guard. This year, they were relying on Tony Douglas and rookie Iman Shumpert, both 2-guards, to play the point. So far, Melo has taken on the role of Point-Forward and that isn’t something that should be happening if the Knicks are to win. Enter “LIN-SANITY.” Jeremy Lin has come from out of nowhere and has taken the league by storm in the past week. His jersey is the highest selling jersey in the league and just about everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. Why wouldn’t they? All he does is “Lin.” The Knicks are currently on a 5 game winning streak and have done so without Melo and Amare. However, the Knicks have also not played against a good team in that span, and wont for at least the next three games. Bottom line is that the Knicks aren’t going to win with Lin or Melo or anyone taking more than 25 shots a night. Lin has scored a lot during this run, but he has also shot the ball a ton and he turns the ball over a ton. He also looks like he is dying on the court at times, most likely because he isn’t used to the minutes he is getting. Lin is a good option for D’Antoni’s offense. He is good at running the pick and roll and can shoot the three decently. If the Knicks wish to win when Melo and Amare get back, which I still believe will happen, they will need Lin to run a ton of pick and rolls with Tyson Chandler, Amare, and Melo. At times there should be more combinations between these players. Their whole offense should be about the pick and roll and then they can utilize the shooters they have to spread the floor a bit. In this scenario, I can see them being a good team, though they still would need to learn how to play defense. Tyson Chandler, Iman Shumpert, and Landry Fields should help them in that category. If Lin can average 8 points per game and do the things I mentioned, with Melo taking somewhere between eighteen and twenty two shots per game, the Knicks could end up back where I predicted they would be before the season. This is another great example of how deep this league is. There are a lot of guys in this league who can perform very well if given the opportunity, Great story and good for Jeremy Lin. I will be taking a look into this whole situation in another post later.
The NBA is so deep this season, especially in the West, and it was difficult to make some of the picks that I made. Dallas is still deep and they are starting to show that they are just as good as they were last year if Dirk is himself. Vince Carter has turned out well for them, as has Delonte West, and Roddy Beaubois looks like he can be a good guard for them as well. Shawn Marion is apparently “The Matrix” again and Lamar Odom is slowly, but surely, coming back to reality. I look for them to be another interesting team in the playoffs, and I won’t be surprised if they actually get back to the Western Finals.
I still like Portland, as I do every year. They are actually healthy. Lamarcus Aldridge is finally being recognized as the All-Star that he is. I like the addition of Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton and it has worked out well for them. Gerald Wallace is having another solid year and Nicolas Batum is doing what he does: defend, hit the three, and just show that great athleticism. Not much else is needed to be said about them. They will quietly get into the playoffs and they have great possibilities, again, to go deep.
Unfortunately for Utah, Minnesota, and Houston, I don’t see them making the playoffs this year. The future is bright though. The Jazz are a year ahead of where I thought they would be, as are the Wolves. Devin Harris simply needs to play more like the guy he was in New Jersey. He just hasn’t been the guy that they traded for. Luckily for them, Earl Watson has been great. I personally like their style and think that they have great potential in the future with that great front court depth. The Wolves have a lot of depth at the forward positions and they are learning how to win as a young team. The Wolves should be good the next couple of years. As for Houston, it’s all about Kyle Lowry, period. He is a very good player, underrated, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is talked about a lot more next season. Kevin Martin is still a good scorer and Luis Scola is still a good player, himself. Another couple of pieces over there, and they have a good future.
The Los Angeles Lakers had a strange off season. They got worse. They lost Lamar Odom for absolutely nothing and they lost Shannon Brown. I like the job Mike Brown has done over there, implementing a more defensive style. They brought in guys like Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy and they have been nice acquisitions. The Lakers still have Kobe, Gasol, and Andrew Bynum so I will not count them out. I have them getting in at the bottom of the Western Conference.
The Indiana Pacers have done exactly what I predicted they would do before the season started. They have incredible depth and a very good young core. They have playoff experience from last year, and were actually close to winning a couple of the games they ended up losing to the Bulls. I have them going deep into the playoffs and possibly pulling off an upset over the Bulls. I also see possibilities of the Celtics beating them, should they play each other in the first round. Bottom Line for the Pacers is that they are just going to get better and have a lot of potential to do some damage in this year’s playoffs.
Philadelphia is another team that has surprised me. They are at least a year ahead of where I thought they would be, but I guess it shouldn’t surprise me that Doug Collins has them focused the way they are. There defense looks to be very good, as they are at the top of the league in that category. The 76ers have a lot of depth, as well. They have six players averaging in double figures. I see them getting into the second round of the playoffs.
I personally think that the Cavaliers should have chosen Derrick Williams as the number one pick and Brandon Knight as the fourth pick. I have nothing against Kyrie Irving or Tristan Thompson. I just feel like Derrick Williams was the best player in the draft, and the combination of he and Knight is better than Irving and Thompson. They will miss the playoffs this year, but in the Eastern Conference, it’s not difficult to get yourself back into the playoffs quickly. Look for them to do something next year.
I say again, this league is incredibly deep. Winning a championship is all about depth and matchups nowadays. There are at least ten teams in the West that could easily be a playoff team and many of these teams have potential to go deep. Anything can happen. However, there is one thing that I feel is a constant this year. The Miami Heat will win the NBA championship.
February 13, 2012
