2014 NBA Playoffs 1st Round Predictions and Analysis

EAST                                                                 WEST

8. Atlanta Hawks    Pacers win 4-2                8. Dallas Mavericks        Spurs win 4-1
1. Indiana Pacers                                            1. San Antonio Spurs

5. Washington Wizards    Wizards win 4-3   5. Portland Trail Blazers Rockets win 4-2
4. Chicago Bulls                                           4. Houston Rockets

6. Brooklyn Nets    Raptors win 4-2             6. Golden State Warriors  Clippers win 4-2
3. Toronto Raptors                                        3. LA Clippers

7. Charlotte Bobcats    Heat win 4-1           7. Memphis Grizzlies      Thunder win 4-1
2. Miami Heat                                              2. Oklahoma City Thunder


8-1 East: I'm not going to lie, I'm really disappointed that we arent going to get to see Indiana
and Charlotte in the 1st round. The Bobcats matchup really well with  Indiana, and I thought it
would be a great series, and we could have even potentially seen an upset, and I'm not just saying
that based on the Pacers' recent struggles. Unfortunately, the Heat werent trying and OKC blew it
for all of us...Now on to the actual series. Atlanta is definitely hurt by injuries to Pero Antic
and Al Horford, but they still are a very good shooting team, and have shown decent defensive
ability, at least on the perimeter. What hurts them in this matchup though is that they are 28th
in rebounding. I see the Hawks not making it too easy on Indiana, especially if the Pacers continue
to struggle the way they have. The Pacers have become too stagnant offensively, having terrible possessions and letting it effect their defense. They hold the ball wayyyy too much and try to play too much 1-0n-1 basketball with the rest of the team just standing around. Zero ball movement. Zero player movement. Their turnover issue is still apparent. They need to get back to being the balanced team they've been over the past 2-3 seasons. Obviously, they'll need Paul George to step up when it matters most, but you cant put the type of pressure and reliance they have put on him over the past couple of months. He isnt at that level offensively yet. At the end of the day though, I trust that David West will show his leadership, and get them on the right track for them to win this series.

7-2 East: Charlotte has a much better matchup against Indiana than against Miami. They have a top 5 defense, but they have had trouble scoring at times, especially from 3, though that has improved since trading for Gary Neal. Michael-Kidd Gilchrist is for real defending the best player on the opponent's team, and he has done a good job at the 3 position. He has made it tough on elite players as well, but at the end of the day, you arent containing LeBron James. I really like this Charlotte team. Al Jefferson is a beast. Unfortunately, they run into a bad matchup against the 2 time defending NBA Champions, and they wont be able to continue their great season. Heading into next season, I've been throwing them out there as a darkhorse for Carmelo Anthony. They're returning to the Charlotte Hornets name, and Michael Jordan will likely want to make a big splash with his cap space. a Melo-Jefferson inside out combo is pretty good, and this team has good pieces around that as well. I personally would love to see it. Not going to hold my breath though.

6-3: I find it funny that the Nets tried to purposely lose the last couple of games just to avoid
the Bulls and to "set up a 2nd round matchup against Miami." Unfortunately for them, they arent
getting past Toronto. Toronto is a very exciting, and well balanced team. They are fun to watch.
Kyle Lowry has finally got a chance to show what he can do, Demar Derozan has finally stepped up to show what he is capable of, and they have other pieces as well in Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrance Ross, Greivis Vasquez, and Patrick Patterson. The Nets are a nice veteran team, and this should be a really good series. I'm so happy for Shaun Livingston. I just think Toronto's athleticism is going to be too much for the Nets. The only thing I worry about on Toronto's end in this series, is their lack of experience. Maybe that pushes Brooklyn over in this series, but I just think Toronto is good enough to overcome that experience difference.

5-4 East: This has a chance to be the best series in the 1st round in the Eastern Conference. It was very tough for me to pick this series, so I decided to call it a 7 game series, though it obviously has a chance to be a shorter series. I wont lie, I kind of wanted to see Washington and Toronto in the 1st round, but the Nets had to spoil that for me. At least we dont have to see the Bulls and Nets again though...I just think Chicago's scoring issues are going to hurt them in this series. Washington can run the point total up, but they also are capable of playing good defense, especially with Trevor Ariza on the wing. They are super athletic as well, and I just see John Wall taking his moment to shine, and running with it to officially declare his arrival. Chicago is a really good team. They have a great coach. They leave everything on the floor every single night. That is going to keep these games close and keep them in the series. I'm a fan of Jimmy Butler. Hinrich is still a good player. Joakim Noah is amazing. He was considered a bust at one point, but his hard work has turned him into one of the best Centers in the NBA, and a great leader. Taj Gibson is arguably my favorite player in the NBA, and has been over the past 3-4 years b/c of his amazing versatility. I wouldnt be surprised to see Chicago win this series at all. I just dont know how their scoring issues will play out here. Looking forward to this series.

8-1 West: Before the season, I said that we would have 8 or 9 teams in the West win 50 games or
get incredibly close to 50 wins, and I was correct. This is a deep conference. I like Dallas' team.
Unfortunately, they face the best team in the NBA, and they arent going to get past them. San
Antonio is just such a great, balanced, and deep team. They are an awesome passing team, and they knock down shots. Its going to be fun to see Dirk and Tim Duncan go at it 1 more time. Dont overlook Dallas. They could potentially force a 6th game. Monta Ellis has been a great pickup for them, and has improved his efficiency. Jose Calderon has long been super under rated. Shawn Marion is apparently an ageless wonder, and "The Matrix" is still the perfect nickname for him. Its crazy that he still guards the 3 position the way he does, and he still has a ton of versatility on the court. Vince Carter has been great off the bench. They also have rim protection from Dalembert and Wright. They are a good veteran team. They just ran into a giant. Should be a nostalgic and fun series, but the Spurs are just too good.

7-2: Memphis finds themselves in a similar situation as Dallas. If they hadnt been hurt by injuries
early in the season, they likely would be a much higher seed. Love their style. I'm a fan of their
whole team, but OKC is just too good when they are healthy. Their athleticism is going to stand out in this series. Memphis has a chance if they can do their thing, slow the game down offensively, and hold on to the ball, not allowing the Thunder to get out in the open floor. Still, I have too much faith in Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook to think that OKC wont win this series. I'll be saying that again later on in these playoffs. This should be a great series. It does have a shot to be a long series. I just think OKC is too good to not put this one away as soon as possible.

6-3 West: This probably would have been the best series had Andrew Bogut not been injured. It still should be a good series, and could result in an upset. This is going to be a very physical series, as these 2 teams do not like each other. Golden State lost rim protection and defense with Bogut going down, but Jermaine Oneal has been very good this year. They have the ability to play small with Draymond Greene and Harrison Barnes. Defensively, even with losing Bogut, they should be fine, with Igoudala and Thompson on the perimeter, though I'm not so sure about the PG matchup there. They need to find a way to contain Chris Paul, and take the ball out of his hands. Both of these teams are going to knock down shots all series. Its likely going to be a high scoring matchup. I'm hoping this one goes 7 games. At the end, I just think the Clippers are a deeper team, and Chris Paul will lead them into the 2nd round. Its unfortunate that someone is going to have to lose this one. Both teams are deserving.

5-4 West: I've said it a lot. Houston should be an elite team, but nobody guards on the perimeter
other than Patrick Beverly. Also, they dont play through Dwight Howard enough to set up their
outside shots. It just shows just how good they should be b/c they are still a really good team. James Harden frustrates me just b/c I know for a fact that he can play defense, as he did so in OKC. However, ever since he came to Houston, he doesnt play defense at all. Offensively, he is amazing. Both of these teams use the 3 point shot as a huge part of their games. Portland generally does it off of offensive rebounding. Portland has a chance in this series if they get what they need from LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Wesley Matthews needs to be what he was this season, and they need Nicholas Batum to show his talent. He has a great all around, two way game, but sometimes he disappears. He could be the X factor for them. Robin Lopez has been awesome for them all season. Portland did a good job of improving their bench, which was a weakness last season, but I just dont think they are deep enough. This should also be a high scoring series. Terrance Jones has really stepped up for Houston all season. He is going to be a big factor in this series, as is Chandler Parsons. They are going to be counting on Patrick Beverly to try and contain Damian Lillard. I'm worried about Beverly's recent knee injury. I dont know how that is going to hold up. As I said, he is their only perimeter defender. It could come into play. At the end, I see Houston edging out Portland in 6 games b/c of their overall talent level.

I'll be posting 2nd round predictions when the time comes

Revised 2014 MLB picks at end of ST

Honestly, I finished this a couple of days ago, and there have been more injuries since then. I'm not going back and doing this again, so I'm just going to leave it how it is. I could do my usual thing and explain my picks, but that is clearly going to take a long time, and since nobody seems to care, I'm not going to waste my time and will continue to use my facebook account as a more immediate sports blog where I comment on most everything. I will still post stuff here, but as you may have noticed, its going to be scarcely unless this starts getting a little more recognition.

Revised 2014 MLB ST picks after most injuries:

AL EAST                                   AL CENTRAL                         AL WEST
1. Tampa Bay Rays(97-65)       1.Detroit Tigers  (90-72)           1.Oakland A's (91-71)
2. Boston Red Sox (90-72)       2.Kansas City Royals (86-76)   2.Los Angeles Angels (87-75)
3. New York Yankees (88-74)  3.Cleveland Indians (83-79)      3.Texas Rangers (84-78)
4. Baltimore Orioles (87-75)    4.Chicago White Sox (76-86)   4.Seattle Mariners (78-84)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87)   5.Minnesota Twins  (74-88)      5.Houston Astros  (72-90)

NL EAST                                      NL CENTRAL                           NL WEST
1. Washington Nationals (98-64)  1.St Louis Cardinals  (95-67)    1.Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67)
2. Atlanta Braves     (90-72)          2.Cincinnati Reds (88-74)        2.San Francisco Giants (88-74)
3. New York Mets (85-77)           3.Pittsburgh Pirates (86-76)     3.Arizona Diamondbacks (83-79)
4. Miami Marlins(80-82)            4.Milwaukee Brewers (77-85)   4.Colorado Rockies   (79-83)
5. Philadelphia Phillies(78-84)   5.Chicago Cubs    (73-89)          5.San Diego Padres  (74-88)

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
NL Champion:  I honestly dont know who I have going to the World Series. Right now, I'm leaning
Washington b/c of their rotation, but both St Louis and the Dodgers are good enough to get there
as well.
AL Champion: Tampa Bay Rays
World Series Champion: Whoever wins the National League

Original 2014 MLB ST picks (prior to injuries)

I had already made my predictions for the 2014 MLB season, but b/c of a multitude of injuries and roster moves, I will now have to change them and come out with revised standings before Opening Day next Sunday. I will be taking into account other injuries and roster moves between now and then, so that means I will have to wait until most of those decisions are made.

Original 2014 MLB ST predictions:

AL EAST                                 AL CENTRAL                         AL WEST
1. Tampa Bay Rays(97-65)      1.Detroit Tigers  (92-70)          1.Oakland A's (96-66)
2. Boston Red Sox (90-72)      2.Kansas City Royals (88-74)  2.Texas Rangers (89-73)
3. New York Yankees (88-74) 3.Cleveland Indians (83-79)     3.Los Angeles Angels (87-75)
4. Baltimore Orioles (87-75)   4.Chicago White Sox (76-86)   4.Seattle Mariners (82-80)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82)   5.Minnesota Twins  (74-88)     5.Houston Astros  (72-90)

NL EAST                                         NL CENTRAL                       NL WEST
1. Washington Nationals (102-60)  1.St Louis Cardinals  (95-67)  1.Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67)
2. Atlanta Braves   (94-68)              2.Cincinnati Reds (90-72)      2.San Francisco Giants (88-74)
3. New York Mets (85-77)              3.Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)    3.Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76)
4. Miami Marlins(80-82)                4.Milwaukee Brewers (77-85)   4.Colorado Rockies    (84-78)
5. Philadelphia Phillies(78-84)       5.Chicago Cubs     (75-87)         5.San Diego Padres   (78-84)

2013-2014 NBA Predictions at the All Star Break

All Star Break Picks

EAST                                WEST
1. Indiana Pacers              1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Miami Heat                  2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Toronto Raptors           3. LA Clippers
4. Washington Wizards    4. Houston Rockets
5. Chicago Bulls              5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Atlanta Hawks             6. Golden State Warriors
7. Charlotte Bobcats        7. Phoenix Suns
8. New York Knicks        8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Brooklyn Nets             9. Memphis Grizzlies
10.Detroit Pistons          10.Minnesota Timberwolves
11.Cleveland Cavaliers  11.New Orleans Hornets
12.Boston Celtics          12.Denver Nuggets
13.Orlando Magic         13.Sacramento Kings
14.Philadelphia 76ers    14.Los Angeles Lakers
15.Milwaukee Bucks     15.Utah Jazz

Eastern Conference Finals                             Western Conference Finals
Miami Heat def. Indiana Pacers     Oklahoma City Thunder def. San Antonio Spurs
               
                                              NBA Finals
                         Miami Heat def. Oklahoma City Thunder   
           
                                    2014 NBA CHAMPIONS
                                               Miami Heat   

I plan on updating these again after March 1, which is the final day teams can add players
that have been released or bought out and have them eligible to play in the playoffs. With the
Trade deadline coming up in a couple of days, and that March 1 date also effecting team rosters,
things can end up changing. It was tough to make these picks at this stage as the West is just
so good, and I still have confidence in the Spurs to at least get to the West Finals. I took
injuries into account here. I also decided to make a couple of predictions that I think are a little
bold. I just cant put the Knicks away, even with 30 games left. I also dont have a definitive answer
for who I feel will win the 2014 NBA Championship. The Thunder match up very well with the Heat.
They use their youth, length, and athleticism to disrupt, getting in passing lanes and forcing
turnovers. Their defense is impressive. Its a similar style to the Heat, but they are more athletic.
As the rosters are currently constructed, the Heat will need Shane Battier to knock down shots and be effective in guarding Kevin Durant at times. The Heat need to take him away from his spots and deny him the ball like they did in the 2012 Finals. Also, if they can use the Thunder's turnover problem to their advantage, and the Heat do force the most turnovers in the NBA, that will give them their best shot to beat OKC. They showed some very good things in their first meeting with OKC this season, though they were beaten. I suspect the Heat will try to add another athletic wing to help them with this situation. Regardless, I see that being an incredible series and its hard to choose either way. My brain does lean towards OKC, but I cant bet against the 2 time defending NBA Champions at this point.

Preseason 2013-2014 NBA Predictions (main)

Pre Season Picks

EAST                                 WEST
1. Miami Heat                   1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Indiana Pacers              2. LA Clippers
3. Chicago Bulls               3. San Antonio Spurs
4. New York Knicks         4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. Brooklyn Nets              5. Houston Rockets
6. Cleveland Cavaliers     6. Golden State Warriors
7. Detroit Pistons             7. Denver Nuggets
8. Washington Wizards    8. Portland Trail Blazers
9. Milwaukee Bucks        9. New Orleans Pelicans
10.Toronto Raptors        10.Dallas Mavericks
11.Orlando Magic          11.Minnesota Timberwolves
12.Atlanta Hawks          12.LA Lakers
13.Boston Celtics          13.Sacramento Kings
14.Philadelphia 76ers    14.Utah Jazz
15.Charlotte Bobcats     15.Phoenix Suns

Eastern Conference Finals                         Western Conference Finals
Miami Heat def. Indiana Pacers     Oklahoma City Thunder def. LA Clippers
               
                                          NBA Finals
                     Miami Heat def. Oklahoma City Thunder   
           
                           2014 NBA CHAMPIONS
                                    MIAMI HEAT   

Injuries can obviously impact these standings. In my current picks, I considered the injuries
we already know about i.e. Rondo, Kobe, etc. The West was especially hard to figure out. I had
a really hard time deciding between Golden State and Memphis at 4 & 6. Denver was also really
difficult to place. Normally, I could see them in the 5-8 range, but this conference is just so
deep at this early stage. I wanted New Orleans in around 7, but it became impossible to ignore
Denver and Portland. I feel like 7-12 or 13 could easily be bunched up if health isnt a factor,
and these teams can end up in any order. Obviously, in season moves will effect the outcomes. In
the West, I have 1-3, 4-6, 7-12 or 13 bunched up in their respective groups, as long as injury and
tanking dont become factors, which we all know always do. This is the NBA. Just as they did last
year, injuries will effect the outcome of the season. Also, we have to understand that these are based on the understanding that guys are going to make their open shots. We saw from the Heat in the Eastern Finals last year that missing shots can really have a big effect. Once you get into the playoffs, really anything can happen. I would think that this is an instance where we can say that making predictions on paper doesnt mean anything. The games still have to be played. There are at least 6 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship this year. For now though, I'm sticking with the back to back champions b/c they have the best player on the planet and I'm not counting them out until someone beats them.

The East was harder to figure out once I got to 6. 1-3 will be bunched up, with 4-5 likely right behind them. I think Cleveland has a chance to be a pretty good team, but their upside is going to be based on Andruw Bynum, and Kyrie Irving's health. I think any one of 6-8 could easily be in any of those spots in the East. For Washington, I'm looking at improvement in John Wall's jumpshot, and if he can remain healthy. I think Orlando can easily surprise some teams this season. They have some really nice young pieces in place. Atlanta could probably be anywhere from 9-13. They dont have much depth, but have a couple of good experienced core pieces. In the end, Orlando, Boston, and Atlanta are probably interchangeale. I think Boston is better than what some others may think, but we dont know when Rajon Rondo will be coming back, nor do we know how Avery Bradley has improved offensively. I think Philly has some interesting pieces as well, with Carter-Williams joining Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes, Jason Richardson (coming off ACL injury), James Anderson, Lavoy Allen, Arnett Moultrie, Daniel Orton, and Nerlens Noel. Noel is, of course, also  coming off an ACL injury, but it remains to be seen when he will return. If Evan Turner can show the talent that got him drafted #2 overall, this team is obviously better than people expect. I think that a lot of people are expecting the 76ers to start trading off pieces like Young, Turner, and Hawes. If they do in fact tank like that, they'll obviously end up at the bottom, but it will be self induced, not based on the talent level of their roster at the beginning of the season. Charlotte also has a much better looking roster than they did 2 years ago, with Al Jefferson and the young pieces they have, but they will likely be fighting it out with the 76ers for last place. The same can be said for the East as I said for the West. Injuries and tanking will likely play a factor in the outcome.

Regardless of what happens, it should be a really fun NBA season, with a deep talent pool and a lot of fun stories to follow, whether it be returning stars, players on new teams, or player development. I think the MVP race should be fun, though in reality, someone other than Lebron James or Kevin Durant winning it is kind of counter productive. Its likely going to be the media clamoring for someone else who lead their team to a high playoff seed like Derrick Rose (who I think is going to be a lot better player than his previous MVP season all around), Chris Paul, Paul George, etc. In the end, I expect a 2-3 player race between Lebron, Durant, and Rose

Preseason 2013-2014 NBA Predictions

Pre Season Picks

EAST                                  WEST
1. Miami Heat                   1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Indiana Pacers              2. LA Clippers
3. Chicago Bulls               3. San Antonio Spurs
4. New York Knicks         4. Golden State Warriors
5. Brooklyn Nets              5. Houston Rockets
6. Cleveland Cavaliers     6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Detroit Pistons             7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Washington Wizards    8. Denver Nuggets
9. Milwaukee Bucks        9. Portland Trail Blazers
10.Toronto Raptors        10.Dallas Mavericks
11.Atlanta Hawks          11.Minnesota Timberwolves
12.Boston Celtics          12.LA Lakers
13.Orlando Magic         13.Sacramento Kings
14.Charlotte Bobcats    14.Utah Jazz
15.Philadelphia 76ers    15.Phoenix Suns

Eastern Conference Finals              Western Conference Finals
Miami Heat def. Indiana Pacers     Oklahoma City Thunder def. LA Clippers
               
                                          NBA Finals
                      Miami Heat def. Oklahoma City Thunder   
           
                                2014 NBA CHAMPIONS
                                         MIAMI HEAT   


Injuries can obviously impact these standings. In my current picks, I considered the injuries
we already know about i.e. Rondo, Kobe, etc. The West was especially hard to figure out. I had
a really hard time deciding between Golden State and Memphis at 4 & 6. Denver was also really
difficult to place. Normally, I could see them in the 5-8 range, but this conference is just so
deep at this early stage. I wanted New Orleans in around 7, but it became impossible to ignore
Denver and Portland. I feel like 7-12 or 13 could easily be bunched up if health isnt a factor,
and these teams can end up in any order. Obviously, in season moves will effect the outcomes. In
the West, I have 1-3, 4-6, 7-12 or 13 bunched up in their respective groups, as long as injury and
tanking dont become factors, which we all know always do. This is the NBA. Just as they did last
year, injuries will effect the outcome of the season.

The East was harder to figure out once I got to 6. 1-3 will be bunched up, with 4-5 likely right
behind them. I think Cleveland has a chance to be a pretty good team, but their upside is going
to be based on Andruw Bynum, and Kyrie Irving's health. I think any one of 6-8 could easily be in
any of those spots in the East. For Washington, I'm looking at improvement in John Wall's jumpshot, and if he can remain healthy. I think Orlando can easily surprise some teams this season. They have some really nice young pieces in place. Atlanta could probably be anywhere from 9-13. They dont have much depth, but have a couple of good experienced core pieces. In the end, Orlando, Boston, and Atlanta are probably interchangeale. I think Boston is better than what some others may think, but we dont know when Rajon Rondo will be coming back, nor do we know how Avery Bradley has improved offensively. I think Philly has some interesting pieces as well, with Carter-Williams joining Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes, Jason Richardson (coming off ACL injury), James Anderson, Lavoy Allen, Arnett Moultrie, Daniel Orton, and Nerlens Noel. Noel is, of course, also coming off an ACL injury, but it remains to be seen when he will return. If Evan Turner can show the talent that got him drafted #2 overall, this team is obviously better than people expect. Charlotte also has a much better looking roster than they did 2 years ago, with Al Jefferson and the young pieces they have, but they will likely be fighting it out with the 76ers for last place. The same can be said for the East as I said for the West. Injuries and tanking will likely play a factor in the outcome.

Regardless of what happens, it should be a really fun NBA season, with a deep talent pool and a lot of fun stories to follow, whether it be returning stars, players on new teams, or player development. I think the MVP race should be fun, though in reality, someone other than Lebron James or Kevin Durant winning it is kind of counter productive. Its likely going to be the media clamoring for someone else who lead their team to a high playoff seed like Derrick Rose (who I think is going to be a lot better player than his previous MVP season all around), Chris Paul, Paul George, etc. In the end, I expect a 2-3 player race between Lebron, Durant, and Rose

Preliminary note on Preseason 2013-2014 NBA predictions

I'm going to do something different here and post 2 slightly different copies of my preseason NBA predictions for this upcoming season that starts tomorrow night. You will notice that they are essentially the same except for a couple of small differences and most everything is explained in the paragraphs below the predicted standings. I would generally refer to the 2nd one that is uploaded as the main one