I wont lie, I got a little lazy in terms of posting my 2nd half predictions, but with about 15 games remaining, I'll lay out how I see the rest of the regular season going
EAST WEST
1. Atlanta Hawks 1. Golden State Warriors
2. Cleveland Cavaliers 2. Memphis Grizzlies
3. Toronto Raptors 3. Houston Rockets
4. Chicago Bulls 4. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Washington Wizards 5.San Antonio Spurs
6. Miami Heat 6. Oklahoma City Thunder
7. Milwaukee Bucks 7. LA Clippers
8. Boston Celtics 8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Indiana Pacers 9. New Orleans Pelicans
10.Charlotte Hornets 10.Phoenix Suns
11.Brooklyn Nets 11.Utah Jazz
12.Detroit Pistons 12.Denver Nuggets
13.Orlando Magic 13.Sacramento Kings
14.Philadelphia 76ers 14.Los Angeles Lakers
15.New York Knicks 15.Minnesota Timberwolves
As for how I see the playoffs going, thats a little tougher to say because these are some good matchups, and its hard to speculate on certain injuries. I feel like I can go in a few different ways. I think the dynamic of the matchups can really make some things interesting as it feels like even the couple of teams that I like the most in the East have teams they could lose to. I personally like Atlanta and Chicago, assuming their health, the most, and think that a healthy Chicago has the best shot to beat Atlanta (though I think a first round matchup with the Celtics could be interesting for them as well). In the West, I'm pretty much sticking to my original thoughts. The backend of the seeding should go down to the last day. Obviously, that means that certain matchups may happen earlier, such as Golden State and OKC. I still stand by the notion that a healthy OKC has the best chance to beat the Warriors, but in the end, I will stick with my preseason prediction, the Golden State Warriors, to come out of the West and win the NBA Championship. The regular season has only strengthened my beliefs there. Assuming everything goes this way, this is what I would have to go with:
Eastern Conference Finals Western Conference Finals
Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls
2015 NBA CHAMPIONS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Work in Progress for Cleveland Cavaliers 2 Games into Season
Again, its still just 2 games, but I've continued to pick up on some
things that need to be addressed, as I mentioned after the first game.
Here are some game notes, and some of my perceptions about both of these
teams, especially Cleveland...
Cleveland brought a lot more energy in this game, as evidenced by their edge in the offensive rebounding. It was a hard fought battle by both sides. LeBron was obviously HUGE in this game. He pretty much took over from the onset. Good to see him come out and remind people of exactly who he is, after a full day of ridiculous ridicule by haters. Wasnt much offense in the half court, nor much ball movement, by the Cavs. They got a lot of 2nd chance opportunities with those offensive rebounds by Tristan Thompson, and scored 25 points off Bulls turnovers. I thought Lebron and those rebounds was one of the only things that kept them in this game. The Bulls had some trouble when Rose was on the bench for most of this game, in point differential, though Brooks, and especially Hinrich, were much better in the 4th quarter. The Cavs once again struggled on pick&roll defense, and there is a good reason for that. They were defending it pretty similarly to the Heat's system, with their bigs coming out and showing on guards. The main difference there is the Cavs dont have Chris Bosh, who is the best in the league at doing just that, and instead, they have below average defenders trying to do those jobs. Then they have a need for 1 more perimeter defender, as well as a rim protector, to try to help them with that issue. The other thing I saw from the Cavs was a continued lack of any help side defense, as rotations were slow or non existent.
Derrick Rose looked amazing tonight, and the Cavs had ZERO answer for him. Only things that kept Cleveland in the game were the play of LeBron, offensive rebounding by Thompson, the point differential without Derrick Rose, Chicago turning the ball over, and some rimmed out open looks by the Bulls. There was some great Big 2 Big passing in this game, as expected from both of these teams when I outlined them in my preseason overview...I feel like the Cavs rotation is still a work in progress. Not enough minutes for Mike Miller or Shawn Marion. Still, a better use of the bench by them in this game than the 1st one. I just feel like they arent taking enough advantage of LeBron James. They're limiting LeBron to 1-2 positions, and not taking advantage of his versatility, which I think is something to watch for as the season progresses.
The Cavs were lucky to get to OT with some mistakes by the Bulls at the end of regulation. Obviously, Derrick Rose going down in that 4th quarter played a big role as well.,,When Noah was out to start OT, LeBron immediately recognized the chance, and he attacked from the start to set the table for the rest of the game...Its a good win for Cleveland, but I still need to see how they continue to grow throughout the season. Obviously, the Bulls were without Jimmy Butler, and Rose went down for that time. I think its pretty clear that the Bulls are a better team. They won the game, but the Cavs cant continue to play like this if they're going to be a good team. There isnt much consistency in that formula.
Cleveland brought a lot more energy in this game, as evidenced by their edge in the offensive rebounding. It was a hard fought battle by both sides. LeBron was obviously HUGE in this game. He pretty much took over from the onset. Good to see him come out and remind people of exactly who he is, after a full day of ridiculous ridicule by haters. Wasnt much offense in the half court, nor much ball movement, by the Cavs. They got a lot of 2nd chance opportunities with those offensive rebounds by Tristan Thompson, and scored 25 points off Bulls turnovers. I thought Lebron and those rebounds was one of the only things that kept them in this game. The Bulls had some trouble when Rose was on the bench for most of this game, in point differential, though Brooks, and especially Hinrich, were much better in the 4th quarter. The Cavs once again struggled on pick&roll defense, and there is a good reason for that. They were defending it pretty similarly to the Heat's system, with their bigs coming out and showing on guards. The main difference there is the Cavs dont have Chris Bosh, who is the best in the league at doing just that, and instead, they have below average defenders trying to do those jobs. Then they have a need for 1 more perimeter defender, as well as a rim protector, to try to help them with that issue. The other thing I saw from the Cavs was a continued lack of any help side defense, as rotations were slow or non existent.
Derrick Rose looked amazing tonight, and the Cavs had ZERO answer for him. Only things that kept Cleveland in the game were the play of LeBron, offensive rebounding by Thompson, the point differential without Derrick Rose, Chicago turning the ball over, and some rimmed out open looks by the Bulls. There was some great Big 2 Big passing in this game, as expected from both of these teams when I outlined them in my preseason overview...I feel like the Cavs rotation is still a work in progress. Not enough minutes for Mike Miller or Shawn Marion. Still, a better use of the bench by them in this game than the 1st one. I just feel like they arent taking enough advantage of LeBron James. They're limiting LeBron to 1-2 positions, and not taking advantage of his versatility, which I think is something to watch for as the season progresses.
The Cavs were lucky to get to OT with some mistakes by the Bulls at the end of regulation. Obviously, Derrick Rose going down in that 4th quarter played a big role as well.,,When Noah was out to start OT, LeBron immediately recognized the chance, and he attacked from the start to set the table for the rest of the game...Its a good win for Cleveland, but I still need to see how they continue to grow throughout the season. Obviously, the Bulls were without Jimmy Butler, and Rose went down for that time. I think its pretty clear that the Bulls are a better team. They won the game, but the Cavs cant continue to play like this if they're going to be a good team. There isnt much consistency in that formula.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Now Russell Westbrook is Hurt
So, Russell Westbrook has a small fracture in his hand. This next month
should be rough, especially this next couple of games without Reggie
Jackson and Jeremy Lamb, as well as obviously no KD or Anthony Morrow.
Depending on how much time he misses, and the time table on Durant, I
could see the Thunder slipping into the 6 range, maybe lower b/c those
spots will be bunched up, but regardless, they should have plenty of
time to still be one of those good teams, so I'm not too worried.
Its not too much time, so I could still see them getting that 4th seed
if they play well when they get healthy. I'm interested to see how some
of their young guys play with this opportunity. I've expressed my
support for Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb in the past, and this is a good
chance for them. Reggie Jackson gets an opportunity that he really
wants, heading into restricted Free Agency for him next year, so that
should be interesting. I forgot they signed Sebastian Telfair. He was a
big prospect in high school, and I remember I really liked him in that draft the year he came out like 10 years ago. Good
opportunity for him as well. Should be an interesting situation to
follow for the next few weeks
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
2014-2015 Pre Season NBA Predictions and Overview
Pre Season Picks
EAST WEST
1. Chicago Bulls 1. LA Clippers
2. Cleveland Cavaliers 2. Golden State Warriors
3. Atlanta Hawks 3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Miami Heat 4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Charlotte Hornets 5.Dallas Mavericks
6. Washington Wizards 6. Houston Rockets
7. New York Knicks 7. Memphis Grizzlies
8. Toronto Raptors 8. Phoenix Suns
9. Brooklyn Nets 9. Denver Nuggets
10.Detroit Pistons 10.Portland Trail Blazers
11.Boston Celtics 11.New Orleans Pelicans
12.Milwaukee Bucks 12.Minnesota Timberwolves
13.Indiana Pacers 13.Sacramento Kings
14.Orlando Magic 14.Los Angeles Lakers
15.Philadelphia 76ers 15.Utah Jazz
Eastern Conference Finals Western Conference Finals
Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls
2015 NBA CHAMPIONS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Injuries can obviously impact these standings. In my current picks, I considered the injuries we already know about i.e. Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Bradley Beal, Shaun Livingston, Josh McRoberts, etc. For the 2nd straight year, I am predicting a lot of parity in the NBA, and some of that was brought on by some off-season movement, creating a couple of better teams, and bringing a couple of others closer to the pack. This being the case, I expect some teams to be bunched up and possibly separated by only a couple of games, meaning there could be a discrepancy in their final standing compared to where I ordered them here. Obviously, in season moves will effect the outcomes. I expect injury and tanking to become factors, because we all know it always does. This is the NBA. Just as they did last year, those things will effect the outcome of the season. Also, once you get into the playoffs, really anything can happen. I would think that this is an instance where we can say that making predictions on paper doesn't mean anything. The games still have to be played. There are at least 6 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship this year. Lets break down the conferences.
In the West, I expect 1-3 to be bunched up, with the obvious possibility that once again, the San Antonio Spurs end up as the #1 seed. I personally believe the Golden State Warriors to be the best team in the NBA on paper, with a great balance on both sides of the floor. I expect Klay Thompson to take another step forward offensively, and continue to be a great defender, arguably their best, on a team that includes Andre Igoudala. The addition of Shaun Livingston was great from multiple standpoints. Not only does he provide them with the ball-handler off the bench that they needed last year, he also defends 3 positions, and gives them more length and athleticism to add to the plethora of guys that fit that description they already have. Even though they have a new coach, I feel the continuity of bringing back so many players, as well as the added depth, and most importantly, health, should give them every chance to win the NBA Championship. Having said that, the regular season is a different situation, which is why I ended up putting them at 2. If it feels like I'm discounting the defending 2014 NBA Champions, trust me, I'm not. I'm well aware of their capabilities in both the regular and post seasons, and I have them as one of 6 possible ultimate champions. I think the Clippers are once again, very deep, and have every chance to have a deep run in the playoffs. However, they did lose Darren Collison and brought in Jordan Farmar, who is injury prone, to replace him as a backup PG. Those guys are different players. This team feels like it is still too reliant on Chris Paul making plays for them, and that is why I ultimately think they lose to the Thunder again. Speaking of the Oklahoma City Thunder, I don't think they are as good as they were last season, even with the injury to Durant discounted. Anthony Morrow is a great shooter, but defensively, he isn't nearly as good as Sefolosha, and I'm not sure Andre Roberson can replace him. Scott Brooks will once again be looked at to figure out the proper rotations, which he has failed to do previously. If he can, I still think the Thunder have a shot to get to the Finals, despite the fact that I think they were better last year. With Durant missing time, I see them slightly behind that top 3 group I mentioned. Now things become interesting. At 5-7, I believe Dallas, Memphis, and Houston to be interchangeable. Memphis isn't as good as they were last year, but they are still very good defensively, which gives them every shot to win games. Dallas is definitely improved, but I am curious to see how the loss of Shawn Marion effects them defensively. They added Tyson Chandler to try to make up for that. They also did lose Jose Calderon, which I think is very under-rated, but the guys they brought in should be able to tandem to make up for that loss, as long as the team continues to share the ball the way they have. Houston should be a little better defensively, adding Trevor Ariza, but I'm interested to see if they lost any offense, especially off their bench, which is a question mark heading into the season. I'm interested to see how they play this year. I've been on record as saying they need to play more inside-out, but it remains to be seen if they'll do that. The 8th spot might be the most intriguing part of the West this season. I see any of 8-12 being in the same vicinity. I think the safest choice for that 8th spot is probably the Blazers, but I have questions about their bench, which I think are legitimate, considering the loss of Mo Williams, and the obvious reliance on young players such as CJ McCollum, Thomas Robinson, Will Barton, and Myers Leonard, to go with veterans Steve Blake and Chris Kaman. Their starting 5 are obviously really good, and possibly one of the better units in the league, but they've played a lot of minutes, and are going to be relied on for those minutes, and production, again. Denver, now healthy is a deep team, so I expect them to be back in the playoff picture. Even though I think its very possible that the Phoenix Suns take a step back, I see this as a Guard driven league, and they are obviously very deep at that position. They also have a couple of nice young bigs, though I think the loss of Channing Frye should hurt. New Orleans is interesting, as they've had issues staying healthy. Anthony Davis is already the 3rd best player in the NBA right now, and I cant wait to see him play this year. Also, I think Tyreke Evans is an important piece. I keep trying to stay behind him, but he keeps making me look bad for doing so. I'm not as into the Omir Asik addition as some people, but it should help them defensively. I think Minnesota has a chance to really surprise people, as they have a deep roster, with a lot of depth on the wing. I think they should be very good defensively, and they have a very balanced roster. Obviously, they are a bit reliant on some young guys, but they have some good veterans around them. If Rubio actually improves his jump-shot, they could be really good. Regardless, if Flip Saunders can get them to move the ball, and they knock down those open shots, they should be a fun team to watch. I expect there to be at least 8 teams with 50 wins, as I predicted 9 last year, and came incredibly close to being right, so there should be a lot of great basketball in the West. To be honest, I don't even think the bottom 3 teams should be THAT bad, but I'm not going to get into them, as this breakdown is long enough at this point.
Last season, I successfully looked like a complete moron with my predictions in the East, though I did decently in the West. Hopefully, I can do a better job this year. Though I picked them to be the 1 seed, and most people have done the same, this is predicated on certain things. Staying healthy is obviously important. Joakim Noah has the knee. They're incorporating a lot of new players, including Derrick Rose. I expect Derrick Rose to be really good. I'm just curious how the offense is going to run. Last time, they ran a lot of isolation through Rose. This is a team that he can get his in the flow of the offense. I obviously picked them, so I expect them to be able to do those things. I'm very interested in seeing Noah and Gasol play together. Both of them will get opportunities in the high post, possibly running some high lows, and we can see a lot of interior passing as well. This has a chance to be a fun team to watch. I honestly didn't initially think that the Cleveland Cavaliers were that good, but they've shown me some things in Training Camp and the preseason, as well as the fact that LeBron James by himself can take them from the 5 seed range to the 2 seed. I think the 2 most important players on this team, obviously besides LeBron, are Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson. The Cavs need help defensively on the wing, and Kyrie Irving doesn't necessarily play too much defense. So guarding PGs is going to be an issue, as well as lack of rim protection. However, they should rebound enough to be able to get more possessions, as well as not give up too many offensive rebounds, which should help the defense. Offensively, if they move the ball, move without the ball, and play efficiently, they should be great, however, it remains to be seen if Kyrie Irving can learn to play off the ball. Kevin Love is going to possibly see some opportunities in the high post, as well as Varejao, and they may run some similar things as Chicago's bigs at times. He is going to have to be used to floating on the outside, which should be difficult. They should be an interesting team to watch grow throughout the season. Now we get into a group that I think can easily be bunched up from the 3-8 by a few games. You may be surprised to see Atlanta as high as they are. I think they have a great perimeter defense with DeMarre Carroll, Shelvin Mack, and now adding Thabo Sefolosha, and then they also have Al Horford back from injury to add to Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver. I think they have some great 3 point shooting as well. They're a very deep team. I think they're kind of similar to the Spurs in a few ways. They're coach is from that system. We'll see if they can play to their possibilities. I'm not going to mention the obvious because, its the obvious. Miami runs through Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, defensive chemistry, and ball movement. The Heat have a really good team this year. They still need to continue to get some continuity, as Josh McRoberts missed the pre-season. Its going to be a process this year, as they try to get better as the season progresses. I'm not going to get into the obvious with these 2guys. Dwyane Wade obviously needs to stay healthy, but I fully expect to see a great season from him. Chris Bosh is going to show people how great of an all around player he has become. I'm interested to see him take the challenge to lead on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he can guard the 2-5, and he even showed capability to come out and guard a couple of PGs at times last season. He is great defending the pick & roll, and he covers a lot of ground on shows and rotations. He has even shown an ability to get back and protect the rim. He knows how to use his length and get deflections and get in the passing lanes. Offensively he should be back on the block more, but he is going to do a bit of everything. I'm interested to see when Josh McRoberts comes back, how those two work together. McRoberts is a play-maker, and he is going to get opportunities in the high post, as a facilitator, and also stretching the floor as a shooter. He is also a pretty good defender. Luol Deng joins them, and he as consistent as they come. I think we'll see a lot of 2 PG lineups and 3 Guard lineups this year. That group is growing, and Mario Chalmers will also be used as a 2 Guard at times. I'm VERY interested in James Ennis. The talk was that he needed serious work on his ball handling, which is probably still true, but he can definitely put the ball on the floor. His athleticism really plays on both ends of the court, and he can shoot the 3 as well. He also rebounds. His development will be important for the Heat. Danny Granger is an unknown. Is he healthy? What is he going to be in this system. I see a lot of potential there, but we don't know too much about his status right now. He could be a good option at multiple positions this year, and the Heat will need him to knock down outside shots. They'll need to get better in the defensive system throughout the season, so that should be something to look for. Charlotte is really good this year. I thought they needed a ball handler off the bench, some 3 point shooting, and another play-maker, and that is exactly what they added. They lost McRoberts, but Stephenson can be a play-maker for them, as well as guard on the wings, and knock down shots. They still play through Al Jefferson, but it helps him when they can spread the floor more with some shooting. Marvin Williams should be a stretch 4 for them, and they have some good young players as well. They had a top 5 defense last year, so if they can come close to repeating that, they should be very good, as they are much better offensively. Washington was hard to put this low. They are dealing with an injury to Bradley Beal, but they are still very good. I think we're going to see even more growth in John Wall. I'm looking at continued improvement in his jump-shot, play-making abilities, and defensively. He also has to stay healthy again this year. They should get Beal back eventually, and they have a deep group of big men, including Nene and Marcin Gortat coming back. They should have more continuity with another year together. They added Paul Pierce, and it should be interesting how he plays into things, and what part he has in the offense. He does provide some leadership. I'll be interested to see how "Baby G-Money" (I'm galling Glenn Rice Jr. that) and Otto Porter Jr. effect this team this season. They're still growing, but have a lot of ability, and are fun to watch. I think the Wizards can be players this year. I actually think the Knicks are going to be pretty good this year. I don't see them at that top end of that group, but I like everything Phil Jackson has done since coming in, which is surprising. He made a great trade with Dallas, getting Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin, and those 2 draft picks, which got them a steal in Cleanthony Early. I was super surprised he fell so far. I think Early should impress. He is really athletic, with a long wingspan, and he can play on the defensive end and shoot the 3. I like the additions of Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith at the 5. Dalembert should give them some rim protection, and Jason Smith does some things on both ends that are nice, and he should fit into their offense. JR Smith cant possibly be as bad as he was last year. I'm also really interested in the growth of Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr. I really hated having to put the Raptors into this 8 spot because I think they are better than that, and have every chance to be in that 3-6 group. Like I said, there will be parity in the league this year barring the things I mentioned, and that means a good team will be at the bottom of the playoffs. Toronto brings back pretty much everyone, and adds Lou Williams and James Johnson. They have a deep and balanced team. I'm interested to see the continued growth of Kyle Lowry, DeMar Derozan, and Amir Johnson as the leaders of this team, but also the growth of young guys like Jonas Valanciunas, Terrance Ross. They have a rookie named Bruno Caboclo that is super interesting, so I'm excited to see him play a little. Even the teams I have out of the playoffs have a shot to get into that 8 seed range if certain things happen. Brooklyn has a good veteran team, and added some unknown young players, but those guys have talent, and I think they have a great head coach in Linoel Hollins. I'm really interested to see Mason Plumlee's growth next year, and how Deron Williams can bounce back. They need to stay healthy. Detroit will try to make it work, but they cant
Regardless of what happens, it should be a really fun NBA season, with a deep talent pool and a lot of fun stories to follow, whether it be returning stars, players on new teams, the parity, or player development.
EAST WEST
1. Chicago Bulls 1. LA Clippers
2. Cleveland Cavaliers 2. Golden State Warriors
3. Atlanta Hawks 3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Miami Heat 4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Charlotte Hornets 5.Dallas Mavericks
6. Washington Wizards 6. Houston Rockets
7. New York Knicks 7. Memphis Grizzlies
8. Toronto Raptors 8. Phoenix Suns
9. Brooklyn Nets 9. Denver Nuggets
10.Detroit Pistons 10.Portland Trail Blazers
11.Boston Celtics 11.New Orleans Pelicans
12.Milwaukee Bucks 12.Minnesota Timberwolves
13.Indiana Pacers 13.Sacramento Kings
14.Orlando Magic 14.Los Angeles Lakers
15.Philadelphia 76ers 15.Utah Jazz
Eastern Conference Finals Western Conference Finals
Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls
2015 NBA CHAMPIONS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Injuries can obviously impact these standings. In my current picks, I considered the injuries we already know about i.e. Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Bradley Beal, Shaun Livingston, Josh McRoberts, etc. For the 2nd straight year, I am predicting a lot of parity in the NBA, and some of that was brought on by some off-season movement, creating a couple of better teams, and bringing a couple of others closer to the pack. This being the case, I expect some teams to be bunched up and possibly separated by only a couple of games, meaning there could be a discrepancy in their final standing compared to where I ordered them here. Obviously, in season moves will effect the outcomes. I expect injury and tanking to become factors, because we all know it always does. This is the NBA. Just as they did last year, those things will effect the outcome of the season. Also, once you get into the playoffs, really anything can happen. I would think that this is an instance where we can say that making predictions on paper doesn't mean anything. The games still have to be played. There are at least 6 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship this year. Lets break down the conferences.
In the West, I expect 1-3 to be bunched up, with the obvious possibility that once again, the San Antonio Spurs end up as the #1 seed. I personally believe the Golden State Warriors to be the best team in the NBA on paper, with a great balance on both sides of the floor. I expect Klay Thompson to take another step forward offensively, and continue to be a great defender, arguably their best, on a team that includes Andre Igoudala. The addition of Shaun Livingston was great from multiple standpoints. Not only does he provide them with the ball-handler off the bench that they needed last year, he also defends 3 positions, and gives them more length and athleticism to add to the plethora of guys that fit that description they already have. Even though they have a new coach, I feel the continuity of bringing back so many players, as well as the added depth, and most importantly, health, should give them every chance to win the NBA Championship. Having said that, the regular season is a different situation, which is why I ended up putting them at 2. If it feels like I'm discounting the defending 2014 NBA Champions, trust me, I'm not. I'm well aware of their capabilities in both the regular and post seasons, and I have them as one of 6 possible ultimate champions. I think the Clippers are once again, very deep, and have every chance to have a deep run in the playoffs. However, they did lose Darren Collison and brought in Jordan Farmar, who is injury prone, to replace him as a backup PG. Those guys are different players. This team feels like it is still too reliant on Chris Paul making plays for them, and that is why I ultimately think they lose to the Thunder again. Speaking of the Oklahoma City Thunder, I don't think they are as good as they were last season, even with the injury to Durant discounted. Anthony Morrow is a great shooter, but defensively, he isn't nearly as good as Sefolosha, and I'm not sure Andre Roberson can replace him. Scott Brooks will once again be looked at to figure out the proper rotations, which he has failed to do previously. If he can, I still think the Thunder have a shot to get to the Finals, despite the fact that I think they were better last year. With Durant missing time, I see them slightly behind that top 3 group I mentioned. Now things become interesting. At 5-7, I believe Dallas, Memphis, and Houston to be interchangeable. Memphis isn't as good as they were last year, but they are still very good defensively, which gives them every shot to win games. Dallas is definitely improved, but I am curious to see how the loss of Shawn Marion effects them defensively. They added Tyson Chandler to try to make up for that. They also did lose Jose Calderon, which I think is very under-rated, but the guys they brought in should be able to tandem to make up for that loss, as long as the team continues to share the ball the way they have. Houston should be a little better defensively, adding Trevor Ariza, but I'm interested to see if they lost any offense, especially off their bench, which is a question mark heading into the season. I'm interested to see how they play this year. I've been on record as saying they need to play more inside-out, but it remains to be seen if they'll do that. The 8th spot might be the most intriguing part of the West this season. I see any of 8-12 being in the same vicinity. I think the safest choice for that 8th spot is probably the Blazers, but I have questions about their bench, which I think are legitimate, considering the loss of Mo Williams, and the obvious reliance on young players such as CJ McCollum, Thomas Robinson, Will Barton, and Myers Leonard, to go with veterans Steve Blake and Chris Kaman. Their starting 5 are obviously really good, and possibly one of the better units in the league, but they've played a lot of minutes, and are going to be relied on for those minutes, and production, again. Denver, now healthy is a deep team, so I expect them to be back in the playoff picture. Even though I think its very possible that the Phoenix Suns take a step back, I see this as a Guard driven league, and they are obviously very deep at that position. They also have a couple of nice young bigs, though I think the loss of Channing Frye should hurt. New Orleans is interesting, as they've had issues staying healthy. Anthony Davis is already the 3rd best player in the NBA right now, and I cant wait to see him play this year. Also, I think Tyreke Evans is an important piece. I keep trying to stay behind him, but he keeps making me look bad for doing so. I'm not as into the Omir Asik addition as some people, but it should help them defensively. I think Minnesota has a chance to really surprise people, as they have a deep roster, with a lot of depth on the wing. I think they should be very good defensively, and they have a very balanced roster. Obviously, they are a bit reliant on some young guys, but they have some good veterans around them. If Rubio actually improves his jump-shot, they could be really good. Regardless, if Flip Saunders can get them to move the ball, and they knock down those open shots, they should be a fun team to watch. I expect there to be at least 8 teams with 50 wins, as I predicted 9 last year, and came incredibly close to being right, so there should be a lot of great basketball in the West. To be honest, I don't even think the bottom 3 teams should be THAT bad, but I'm not going to get into them, as this breakdown is long enough at this point.
Last season, I successfully looked like a complete moron with my predictions in the East, though I did decently in the West. Hopefully, I can do a better job this year. Though I picked them to be the 1 seed, and most people have done the same, this is predicated on certain things. Staying healthy is obviously important. Joakim Noah has the knee. They're incorporating a lot of new players, including Derrick Rose. I expect Derrick Rose to be really good. I'm just curious how the offense is going to run. Last time, they ran a lot of isolation through Rose. This is a team that he can get his in the flow of the offense. I obviously picked them, so I expect them to be able to do those things. I'm very interested in seeing Noah and Gasol play together. Both of them will get opportunities in the high post, possibly running some high lows, and we can see a lot of interior passing as well. This has a chance to be a fun team to watch. I honestly didn't initially think that the Cleveland Cavaliers were that good, but they've shown me some things in Training Camp and the preseason, as well as the fact that LeBron James by himself can take them from the 5 seed range to the 2 seed. I think the 2 most important players on this team, obviously besides LeBron, are Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson. The Cavs need help defensively on the wing, and Kyrie Irving doesn't necessarily play too much defense. So guarding PGs is going to be an issue, as well as lack of rim protection. However, they should rebound enough to be able to get more possessions, as well as not give up too many offensive rebounds, which should help the defense. Offensively, if they move the ball, move without the ball, and play efficiently, they should be great, however, it remains to be seen if Kyrie Irving can learn to play off the ball. Kevin Love is going to possibly see some opportunities in the high post, as well as Varejao, and they may run some similar things as Chicago's bigs at times. He is going to have to be used to floating on the outside, which should be difficult. They should be an interesting team to watch grow throughout the season. Now we get into a group that I think can easily be bunched up from the 3-8 by a few games. You may be surprised to see Atlanta as high as they are. I think they have a great perimeter defense with DeMarre Carroll, Shelvin Mack, and now adding Thabo Sefolosha, and then they also have Al Horford back from injury to add to Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver. I think they have some great 3 point shooting as well. They're a very deep team. I think they're kind of similar to the Spurs in a few ways. They're coach is from that system. We'll see if they can play to their possibilities. I'm not going to mention the obvious because, its the obvious. Miami runs through Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, defensive chemistry, and ball movement. The Heat have a really good team this year. They still need to continue to get some continuity, as Josh McRoberts missed the pre-season. Its going to be a process this year, as they try to get better as the season progresses. I'm not going to get into the obvious with these 2guys. Dwyane Wade obviously needs to stay healthy, but I fully expect to see a great season from him. Chris Bosh is going to show people how great of an all around player he has become. I'm interested to see him take the challenge to lead on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he can guard the 2-5, and he even showed capability to come out and guard a couple of PGs at times last season. He is great defending the pick & roll, and he covers a lot of ground on shows and rotations. He has even shown an ability to get back and protect the rim. He knows how to use his length and get deflections and get in the passing lanes. Offensively he should be back on the block more, but he is going to do a bit of everything. I'm interested to see when Josh McRoberts comes back, how those two work together. McRoberts is a play-maker, and he is going to get opportunities in the high post, as a facilitator, and also stretching the floor as a shooter. He is also a pretty good defender. Luol Deng joins them, and he as consistent as they come. I think we'll see a lot of 2 PG lineups and 3 Guard lineups this year. That group is growing, and Mario Chalmers will also be used as a 2 Guard at times. I'm VERY interested in James Ennis. The talk was that he needed serious work on his ball handling, which is probably still true, but he can definitely put the ball on the floor. His athleticism really plays on both ends of the court, and he can shoot the 3 as well. He also rebounds. His development will be important for the Heat. Danny Granger is an unknown. Is he healthy? What is he going to be in this system. I see a lot of potential there, but we don't know too much about his status right now. He could be a good option at multiple positions this year, and the Heat will need him to knock down outside shots. They'll need to get better in the defensive system throughout the season, so that should be something to look for. Charlotte is really good this year. I thought they needed a ball handler off the bench, some 3 point shooting, and another play-maker, and that is exactly what they added. They lost McRoberts, but Stephenson can be a play-maker for them, as well as guard on the wings, and knock down shots. They still play through Al Jefferson, but it helps him when they can spread the floor more with some shooting. Marvin Williams should be a stretch 4 for them, and they have some good young players as well. They had a top 5 defense last year, so if they can come close to repeating that, they should be very good, as they are much better offensively. Washington was hard to put this low. They are dealing with an injury to Bradley Beal, but they are still very good. I think we're going to see even more growth in John Wall. I'm looking at continued improvement in his jump-shot, play-making abilities, and defensively. He also has to stay healthy again this year. They should get Beal back eventually, and they have a deep group of big men, including Nene and Marcin Gortat coming back. They should have more continuity with another year together. They added Paul Pierce, and it should be interesting how he plays into things, and what part he has in the offense. He does provide some leadership. I'll be interested to see how "Baby G-Money" (I'm galling Glenn Rice Jr. that) and Otto Porter Jr. effect this team this season. They're still growing, but have a lot of ability, and are fun to watch. I think the Wizards can be players this year. I actually think the Knicks are going to be pretty good this year. I don't see them at that top end of that group, but I like everything Phil Jackson has done since coming in, which is surprising. He made a great trade with Dallas, getting Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin, and those 2 draft picks, which got them a steal in Cleanthony Early. I was super surprised he fell so far. I think Early should impress. He is really athletic, with a long wingspan, and he can play on the defensive end and shoot the 3. I like the additions of Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith at the 5. Dalembert should give them some rim protection, and Jason Smith does some things on both ends that are nice, and he should fit into their offense. JR Smith cant possibly be as bad as he was last year. I'm also really interested in the growth of Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr. I really hated having to put the Raptors into this 8 spot because I think they are better than that, and have every chance to be in that 3-6 group. Like I said, there will be parity in the league this year barring the things I mentioned, and that means a good team will be at the bottom of the playoffs. Toronto brings back pretty much everyone, and adds Lou Williams and James Johnson. They have a deep and balanced team. I'm interested to see the continued growth of Kyle Lowry, DeMar Derozan, and Amir Johnson as the leaders of this team, but also the growth of young guys like Jonas Valanciunas, Terrance Ross. They have a rookie named Bruno Caboclo that is super interesting, so I'm excited to see him play a little. Even the teams I have out of the playoffs have a shot to get into that 8 seed range if certain things happen. Brooklyn has a good veteran team, and added some unknown young players, but those guys have talent, and I think they have a great head coach in Linoel Hollins. I'm really interested to see Mason Plumlee's growth next year, and how Deron Williams can bounce back. They need to stay healthy. Detroit will try to make it work, but they cant
Regardless of what happens, it should be a really fun NBA season, with a deep talent pool and a lot of fun stories to follow, whether it be returning stars, players on new teams, the parity, or player development.
Monday, June 30, 2014
A Brief Guide to Free Agency for Miami Heat fans
With NBA free agency starting, and players being able to sign as of next
week, I think it has to be mentioned that we shouldnt expect guys to
take less money. They took less last time, and they should get what
they're worth. The salary cap in basketball is ridiculous, and limits
their salaries. The way they set things up after what happened 4 years
ago, they made it harder to keep 3 players together. All year, I
looked around the landscape of the NBA and I wont lie, there are places
that LeBron and/or Bosh could go that would probably make more sense for
them, including monetarily, and could probably produce a lot of really interesting teams. I wont blame them for leaving if that
happens. I am putting my trust in Pat Riley on this, but again, I wont
blame him if these guys leave or dont want to take pay cuts. The fact is,
we need these guys to take pay cuts at this point....LeBron supposedly
(and I wont believe that until I hear/see it from him) says he wants
close to a max deal or the max, which is more than understandable b/c of
the reasons I mentioned, but also b/c he has never been the highest
paid player on his own team, which is obviously ridiculous. Shane
Battier retired, and we already needed more athleticism on the wing, and
now we need to replace him as well. There are also multiple free agents
we can target depending on what situation we are in. Probably the
scenario we could really do something with would be if LeBron signed a 3
year/$62 million deal (Year 1 $20mil/Year 2 $21mil/Year 3 $21mil) with 2
player options worth $22 million on the back of that, Chris Bosh signed
a 4 Year/$64 million deal (Year 1 $15mil/Year 2 $15mil/Year 3
$17mil/Year 4 $17mil) with 2 player options on the back of that worth
$18 million on the back of that, Dwyane Wade signed a 3 year/$44-47
million deal (Year 1 $12-15mil/Year 2 $15mil/Year 3 $17mil) with 2
player options at the back of that worth $16&17 million respectively
on the back of that. That would put us around $50 million committed,
and would leave us somewhere between $10-15 million in cap space
depending on what the cap is increasing to this year. We also should
have the mid level exception and other exceptions that we could use if
we need to. There are many free agents to target that could help us. I personally would stay away from giving anyone anything more than 3 years. I
see us going after Shawn Marion for sure, and hopefully for the veterans
minimum. Then there are Trevor Ariza and Spencer Hawes out there, and
those 2 would be PERFECT for us, but Lance Stephenson is a free agent,
Luol Deng is a free agent, Chandler Parsons is a restricted free agent,
but Houston wants to go after a max contract player, so it would be
possible that they wouldnt match a certain offer. Those 3 are probably
out of our price range b/c of the demand for them. There are plenty of
other interesting names out there. It would be great to address the wing
with a good defender who can knock down shots and has the athleticism
and length I mentioned previously. I named a few for that spot. Hawes
would help us stretch the floor and he is a really good passer. I'm
personally interested in Thabo Sefolosha. We need to decide on what
we're doing at the PG position. Its hard to say we need to make a change
there to be honest. I like having both Chalmers and Cole on this team,
and they do important things; Napier is a stud, but I dont know for sure
what he can do at this level, and you dont want to lose what those
other guys have done for this team. Continued depth would be nice, and
probably at this point, if they added any of the big names I mentioned
especially, they would be targeting minimum type players. We need added
depth and probably more athleticism (Birdman type of player) at a big
man spot. As I said, I trust Pat Riley. I'm also interested in what a
lot of these other teams do b/c there is a lot of talent out there this
year, but I just wanted to make sure everyone is prepared for whats
happening. Dont have too high expectations, and please dont embarrass
South Florida sports fans by being SALTY if things dont go the way we
would hope
Thursday, June 5, 2014
2014 NBA FINALS Preview, Analysis, and Prediction
2014 NBA Finals
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs
It all comes down to this...The Miami Heat look for a 3-peat, as they face the San Antonio Spurs in a rematch of the 2013 NBA Finals...Throughout the season, I have continued to say that the San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. I will not waiver from that statement here. However, I am picking the Miami Heat to win this series in 6 games. That may sound like an odd contradiction, but this is my reasoning...The San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. Last season, they lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, in 7 games. The series came down to a missed free throw by Kawhi Leonard, an offensive rebound by Chris Bosh, an incredible shot by Ray Allen, and then a missed bunny hook shot at the rim by Tim Duncan as Shane Battier pulled the chair on him, followed by a dagger jumpshot by LeBron James. It could be argued that the series could have gone either way. This season, the San Antonio Spurs are a better team. They still have Tony Parker setting things up, getting in the paint. They still have Tim Duncan down low. They still have Danny Green shooting 3s. Kawhi Leonard is another year more experienced, and continues to look like a star every single game on both ends of the court. His length, athleticism, and freakish hands cause the Heat trouble. The Spurs now have Patty Mills over Gary Neal. They also added Marco Belinelli, who has always hurt the Heat with his deadly outside shooting. Thiago Splitter has actually shown improvement in his game, though I'm not sure if he'll be a factor in this series. Boris Diaw is in incredible shape, and he has had a fantastic year, showing off his old PG skills at times and shooting a better percentage from 3. They also still have a guy named Manu Ginobli, who despite all of the short-sighted people that said he was done, is still just as good as he has been. They have other players on the roster, such as Matt Bonner or Jeff Ayers or Aaron Baynes, that could possibly see time as well. This team plays the game of basketball like a well oiled machine. It really is beautiful to watch. They get in the paint to set things up for themselves or others. They move the ball with precision, not letting their egos get in the way of taking the best shot available. They have a bunch of knock down shooters. They dont hurt themselves with turnovers. They play good defense and then get themselves out in the open floor. When you play the San Antonio Spurs, you know that they are going to give everything they have, and you are usually going to have to play perfect basketball to beat them...For the Heat to beat them, they are going to need to stay in front of guys, and not allow them to get into the paint. They need to close out hard to shooters, force them off their spots if possible, and not let the 3 point shot beat them, as it almost did in 2013. They are going to need to be active with their hands on the defensive end, be disruptive, and hopefully cause some turnovers, so they can get out in the open court. They need to play good transition defense as well, as you need to find shooters when getting back against the Spurs. Norris Cole, Shane Battier, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis are needed for specific things in this series. Battier is needed on the defensive end, with his savvy and ability to disrupt. He is needed to knock down shots when he is in the game as well. Ray Allen is obviously needed to knock down shots as well. Norris Cole is important, as the Heat try to make things more difficult for Tony Parker or others to get in the paint. The Heat bigs will need to come up and help on pick and rolls to not allow Spurs guards space to attack and get to the other side of the floor. Keeping Parker on one side of the floor is especially important. Rashard Lewis will likely see time in this series, and he has another pretty good matchup if both teams go small. Hopefully, he can bring the same defensive aggressiveness he showed against David West, while stretching the floor for the Heat. If you havent noticed it, I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the 3 point shot in this series. It is important for both teams. The Heat must not allow 2nd chances by the Spurs in this series. Offensive Rebounds by the Spurs in this series could lead to more 3 pointers. Another dynamic that is very interesting in this series is how the Spurs plan to guard LeBron James this time. Last year, and in years past, the Spurs played off LeBron, daring him to shoot. LeBron didnt take those shots early in the 2013 series, and then put the Spurs away taking, and knocking down, those shots in Game 7. LeBron has improved greatly from the perimeter in these last couple of years, and I expect him to take those shots this time if they are there. Leonard's length has given him some trouble in the past, but LeBron and Dwyane Wade's abilities to go in the post should help when in the half court...In truth, these teams are very similar, and very evenly matched. I call the San Antonio Spurs the best team in the NBA. At the end of the day though, the Miami Heat have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and the Spurs dont. Nobody has beaten the Heat since te 2011 Finals. They may lose, but I have to stick with the defending back-to-back NBA Champions
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs
It all comes down to this...The Miami Heat look for a 3-peat, as they face the San Antonio Spurs in a rematch of the 2013 NBA Finals...Throughout the season, I have continued to say that the San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. I will not waiver from that statement here. However, I am picking the Miami Heat to win this series in 6 games. That may sound like an odd contradiction, but this is my reasoning...The San Antonio Spurs are the best team in the NBA. Last season, they lost to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, in 7 games. The series came down to a missed free throw by Kawhi Leonard, an offensive rebound by Chris Bosh, an incredible shot by Ray Allen, and then a missed bunny hook shot at the rim by Tim Duncan as Shane Battier pulled the chair on him, followed by a dagger jumpshot by LeBron James. It could be argued that the series could have gone either way. This season, the San Antonio Spurs are a better team. They still have Tony Parker setting things up, getting in the paint. They still have Tim Duncan down low. They still have Danny Green shooting 3s. Kawhi Leonard is another year more experienced, and continues to look like a star every single game on both ends of the court. His length, athleticism, and freakish hands cause the Heat trouble. The Spurs now have Patty Mills over Gary Neal. They also added Marco Belinelli, who has always hurt the Heat with his deadly outside shooting. Thiago Splitter has actually shown improvement in his game, though I'm not sure if he'll be a factor in this series. Boris Diaw is in incredible shape, and he has had a fantastic year, showing off his old PG skills at times and shooting a better percentage from 3. They also still have a guy named Manu Ginobli, who despite all of the short-sighted people that said he was done, is still just as good as he has been. They have other players on the roster, such as Matt Bonner or Jeff Ayers or Aaron Baynes, that could possibly see time as well. This team plays the game of basketball like a well oiled machine. It really is beautiful to watch. They get in the paint to set things up for themselves or others. They move the ball with precision, not letting their egos get in the way of taking the best shot available. They have a bunch of knock down shooters. They dont hurt themselves with turnovers. They play good defense and then get themselves out in the open floor. When you play the San Antonio Spurs, you know that they are going to give everything they have, and you are usually going to have to play perfect basketball to beat them...For the Heat to beat them, they are going to need to stay in front of guys, and not allow them to get into the paint. They need to close out hard to shooters, force them off their spots if possible, and not let the 3 point shot beat them, as it almost did in 2013. They are going to need to be active with their hands on the defensive end, be disruptive, and hopefully cause some turnovers, so they can get out in the open court. They need to play good transition defense as well, as you need to find shooters when getting back against the Spurs. Norris Cole, Shane Battier, Ray Allen, and Rashard Lewis are needed for specific things in this series. Battier is needed on the defensive end, with his savvy and ability to disrupt. He is needed to knock down shots when he is in the game as well. Ray Allen is obviously needed to knock down shots as well. Norris Cole is important, as the Heat try to make things more difficult for Tony Parker or others to get in the paint. The Heat bigs will need to come up and help on pick and rolls to not allow Spurs guards space to attack and get to the other side of the floor. Keeping Parker on one side of the floor is especially important. Rashard Lewis will likely see time in this series, and he has another pretty good matchup if both teams go small. Hopefully, he can bring the same defensive aggressiveness he showed against David West, while stretching the floor for the Heat. If you havent noticed it, I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the 3 point shot in this series. It is important for both teams. The Heat must not allow 2nd chances by the Spurs in this series. Offensive Rebounds by the Spurs in this series could lead to more 3 pointers. Another dynamic that is very interesting in this series is how the Spurs plan to guard LeBron James this time. Last year, and in years past, the Spurs played off LeBron, daring him to shoot. LeBron didnt take those shots early in the 2013 series, and then put the Spurs away taking, and knocking down, those shots in Game 7. LeBron has improved greatly from the perimeter in these last couple of years, and I expect him to take those shots this time if they are there. Leonard's length has given him some trouble in the past, but LeBron and Dwyane Wade's abilities to go in the post should help when in the half court...In truth, these teams are very similar, and very evenly matched. I call the San Antonio Spurs the best team in the NBA. At the end of the day though, the Miami Heat have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and the Spurs dont. Nobody has beaten the Heat since te 2011 Finals. They may lose, but I have to stick with the defending back-to-back NBA Champions
Miami Heat win 4-2
2014 NBA Champions
MIAMI HEAT
Ignoring the Conference Finals
I decided to ignore the Conference Finals b/c there was a lot of redundancy in the things I have said all year. The Spurs-OKC series, however, was not what I expected. I didnt realize that Scott Brooks was going to randomly decide not to play his best lineups. I didnt realize he was going to go away from the athleticism that gave them their advantage. Obviously, Serge Ibaka was hurt and missed the first 2 games, but that wasnt solely to blame for the Thunder loss. I feel bad for Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook. Hopefully, they come back strong next year, and I have no doubt they can (though I am very interested in seeing what happens with Thabo Sefolosha)
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